home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
QRZ! Ham Radio 4
/
QRZ Ham Radio Callsign Database - Volume 4.iso
/
digests
/
infoham
/
940969.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Internet Message Format
|
1994-11-13
|
22KB
Date: Sun, 28 Aug 94 04:30:07 PDT
From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu
Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu
Precedence: Bulk
Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #969
To: Info-Hams
Info-Hams Digest Sun, 28 Aug 94 Volume 94 : Issue 969
Today's Topics:
Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 26 August
Send Replies or notes for publication to: <Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu>
Send subscription requests to: <Info-Hams-REQUEST@UCSD.Edu>
Problems you can't solve otherwise to brian@ucsd.edu.
Archives of past issues of the Info-Hams Digest are available
(by FTP only) from UCSD.Edu in directory "mailarchives/info-hams".
We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text
herein consists of personal comments and does not represent the official
policies or positions of any party. Your mileage may vary. So there.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 25 Aug 1994 12:16:05 MDT
From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 26 August
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
--- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW ---
July 22 to August 01, 1994
Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
T0K 2E0
Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008
---------
A NEW ADDITION TO THE WEEKLY REPORTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A new set of graphs have been incorporated into these weekly reports
and will remain a regular feature of these reports. The graphs plot the
average 10.7 cm solar radio flux values for various numbers of days. For
example, the 5-day average 10.7 cm solar radio flux graph plots the
solar flux, averaged over a period of 5 days. Similar plots for 10 and
20 day solar flux averages have also been included.
These new plots can be used to aid in determining shorter-term
ionospheric propagation conditions and can be used as input into the
various propagation programs (ex. SKYCOM) for shorter-term forecasts
of HF radio propagation conditions.
---------
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE
----------------------------------------------------
|10.7 cm|HF Propagation +/- CON| Mag| Aurora |
|SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
--|-------|-----------------------|----|--------|
August 26| 072 | G G F F 05 00 75|3 12|NV NV LO|
27| 073 | G G F F 05 00 75|3 12|NV NV LO|
28| 073 | G G F F 05 00 75|2 10|NV NV LO|
29| 073 | G G F F 05 00 70|2 10|NV NV LO|
30| 073 | G G F F 05 00 70|2 10|NV NV LO|
31| 073 | G G F F 05 00 70|2 10|NV NV LO|
September 01| 073 | G G F F 05 00 70|2 10|NV NV LO|
02| 073 | G G F F 05 00 70|2 10|NV NV LO|
03| 073 | G G F F 05 00 70|2 10|NV NV LO|
04| 076 | G G F F 05 00 65|2 10|NV NV LO|
PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (26 AUG - 04 SEP)
________________________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH |
| VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH |
| SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE |
| MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. |
| MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW |
| VERY ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE |
| ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE |
| UNSETTLED | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | NONE |
| QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE |
| VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE |
|-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
| Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly |
| Conditions | Given in 8-hour UT intervals | Intensity |
|________________________________________________________________________|
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 70%
NOTES:
Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from
the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
____________________________________________________________
28 | A |
27 | A A |
25 | A A A |
24 |A A A A A |
22 |A A A A A |
21 |A AA A A AA |
20 |A A AA A A AA |
18 |A A AA A A AA |
17 |A AAAA AAAA A A AA |
15 |A AAAA A AAAA A AAAAAA |
14 |AUAAAAU A AAAA A AAAAAA |
13 |AUAAAAU A AAAA U U U A AAAAAA |
11 |AUAAAAU UA AAAA U U U AU AAAAAA |
10 |AUAAAAUU UA AAAAUU U U UAU AAAAAAU |
8 |AUAAAAUU UA AAAAUU U U UAUU AAAAAAU |
7 |AUAAAAUU UA AAAAUU U U UAUUUU AAAAAAU UU |
6 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQ AAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUU Q AAAAAAUUU UUUU |
4 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQ AAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQ QQ QAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
3 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQQQAAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQQQQQ QAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
1 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQQQAAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQQQQQQQAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
0 |AUAAAAUUUUAUQQQQQAAAAUUUUQUUUQUAUUUUUQQQQQQQQAAAAAAUUUQUUUUQ|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start Date: Day #178
NOTES:
This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
A-index or the Boulder A-index. Graph lines are labelled according
to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day. The left-
hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.
CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
----------------------------------------------------------
____________________________________________________________
090 | |
089 | * |
088 | * * |
087 | * * * |
086 | * * ***** * |
085 | * ** ***** * |
084 | * ** ****** ** |
083 | ************* * ** |
082 | ************* *** ** |
081 | ***************** **** |
080 | ******************* **** |
079 | ******************** **** |
078 | ********************* * * **** * |
077 | ************************ ********* |
076 | ************************* * * * * ********* |
075 | *************************** **** ****** *********** |
074 |* ***************************************************** |
073 |******************************************************* |
072 |******************************************************** **|
071 |************************************************************|
070 |************************************************************|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start: Day #177
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 5-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
--------------------------------------------------
____________________________________________________________
087 | |
086 | ** |
085 | ****** |
084 | ********** |
083 | ************* |
082 | ************** ** |
081 | ***************** **** |
080 | ****************** ***** |
079 | ******************** ****** |
078 | ********************** ****** |
077 | *********************** ******** |
076 | ************************** ********* |
075 | *************************** ********************* |
074 | ****************************************************** |
073 |*********************************************************** |
072 |************************************************************|
071 |************************************************************|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start: Day #177
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 10-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
--------------------------------------------------
____________________________________________________________
086 | |
085 | **** |
084 | ********* |
083 | *********** |
082 | ************* |
081 | *************** |
080 | ***************** |
079 | ******************** ****** |
078 | ********************** ******** |
077 | ************************* ********** |
076 |* *************************** ************|
075 |** ******************************* *******************|
074 |*** ********************************************************|
073 |************************************************************|
072 |************************************************************|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start: Day #177
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 20-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
--------------------------------------------------
____________________________________________________________
084 | |
083 | ***** |
082 | ********** |
081 | ************** |
080 | ***************** |
079 |******* ** ********************* |
078 |************************************ |
077 |*************************************** ******* |
076 |****************************************** ***********|
075 |************************************************************|
074 |************************************************************|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start: Day #177
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
-----------------------------------------------
____________________________________________________________
081 | |
080 | **************** |
079 |*************************************************** |
078 |************************************************************|
077 |************************************************************|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start: Day #177
NOTES:
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
Ottawa). High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
---------------------------------------------
____________________________________________________________
107 | |
102 | * |
097 | * |
092 | ** |
087 | * ** * |
082 | ** *** * |
077 | ** ***** * |
072 | ******** *** * * |
067 | * ******** *** * * |
062 | * ******** *** * **** |
057 | **** ************ ********* |
052 | **** ************ ********* |
047 | ***** ************* ********* *|
042 | ***** *************** ********* *|
037 | *********************** ************ **|
032 | ************************ * ************* **|
027 | ************************* * ** ************* **|
022 |************************** *** * ** ** ************* **|
017 |**************************** *** * ********************** **|
012 |******************************** ***************************|
007 |************************************************************|
------------------------------------------------------------
Chart Start: Day #179
NOTES:
The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC.
HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (26 AUG - 04 SEP)
High Latitude Paths
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
LEVEL | FAIR |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
| QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals |
--------------------------------------------------------
Middle Latitude Paths
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
CONFIDENCE | GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | |
------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
75% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
| QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals |
--------------------------------------------------------
Low Latitude Paths
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
CONFIDENCE | GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | |
------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
80% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
| QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals |
--------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S.
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 30 deg. S.
AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (26 AUG - 04 SEP)
High Latitude Locations
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | |
70% | LOW | * | * | * | * |** |** |** |***|***|***|
| NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
| INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight |
--------------------------------------------------------
Middle Latitude Locations
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | |
80% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | |
| NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
| INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight |
--------------------------------------------------------
Low Latitude Locations
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | |
95% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | |
| NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
| INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight |
--------------------------------------------------------
NOTE:
Version 2.00c of our Professional Dynamic Auroral Oval Simulation
Software Package is now available. This professional software is
particularly valuable to radio communicators, aurora photographers,
educators, and astronomers. For more information regarding this software,
contact: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".
For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca"
or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and
related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.
** End of Report **
------------------------------
End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #969
******************************